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A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23
Li, KJ; Zhan, LS; Wang, JX; Liu, XH; Yun, HS; Xiong, SY; Liang, HF; Zhao, HZ
2002-09-01
Source PublicationASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
Volume392Issue:1Pages:301-307
AbstractIn this paper, we investigate the prospect of using previously occurring sunspot cycle signatures to determine future behavior in an ongoing cycle, with specific application to cycle 23, the current sunspot cycle. We find that the gross level of solar activity (i.e., the sum of the total number of sunspots over the course of a sunspot cycle) associated with cycle 23, based on a comparison of its first several years of activity against similar periods of preceding cycles, is such that cycle 23 best compares to cycle 2. Compared to cycles 2 and 22, respectively, cycle 23 appears 1.08 times larger and 0.75 times as large. Because cycle 2 was of shorter period, we infer that cycle 23 also might be of shorter length (period less than 11 years), ending sometime in late 2006 or early 2007.
KeywordSun : Activity Sun : Sunspots Sun : General
DOI10.1051/0004-6361:20020616
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000177868700030
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/8522
Collection星系宇宙学研究部
Affiliation1.Yunnan Observ, YN-650011 Yunnan, Peoples R China
2.CAS, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.CAS, Acad Grad, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Jingdezhen Comprehens Coll, Dept Phys, Jiangxi, Peoples R China
5.Jiaozuo Educ Coll, Dept Phys, Henan, Peoples R China
6.Seoul Natl Univ, SEES, Astron Program, Seoul, South Korea
7.Yunnan Observ Lib, Yunnan, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li, KJ,Zhan, LS,Wang, JX,et al. A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23[J]. ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS,2002,392(1):301-307.
APA Li, KJ.,Zhan, LS.,Wang, JX.,Liu, XH.,Yun, HS.,...&Zhao, HZ.(2002).A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23.ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS,392(1),301-307.
MLA Li, KJ,et al."A method for the prediction of relative sunspot number for the remainder of a progressing cycle with application to cycle 23".ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS 392.1(2002):301-307.
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