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The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25
Du, Z. L.
2020-06-19
Source PublicationASTROPHYSICS AND SPACE SCIENCE
ISSN0004-640X
Volume365Issue:6Pages:5
AbstractMotivated by a successful prediction on the peak of solar cycle 24 (81.7, comparable to the observed 81.9, Du in Astrophys. Space Sci. 338:9,2012), based on the logarithmic relationship between the maximum amplitude (R-m) of a solar cycle and the preceding minimumaa geomagnetic index (aamin), we perform a prediction on the peak of the upcoming cycle 25 using the sunspot number of the new version instead. If the suggested error in aa (3 nT) before 1957 is corrected, the correlation betweenln R-m and lnaamin (r=0.92) is stronger than that not corrected (r=0.86). Based on this relationship, the peak value of cycle 25 is predicted to beRm(25)similar or equal to 151.1 +/- 16.9, about 30% stronger than cycle 24. Employing the 'Waldmeier effect' that the rise time of a cycle is well anti-correlated to its amplitude, we estimated the rise time,Ta(25)=4.3 +/- 0.2 +/- 0, and the peak time of cycle 25,2024.1 +/- 0.8 (years), which is during April 2023 and November 2024.
KeywordSpace weather The Sun The solar cycle
Funding OrganizationNational Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
DOI10.1007/s10509-020-03818-1
WOS KeywordSUNSPOT NUMBER ; GEOMAGNETIC-ACTIVITY ; MAGNETIC-FIELD ; AMPLITUDE ; PRECURSOR ; MAXIMUM ; FORECAST ; INDEX ; SIZE ; IHV
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11973058] ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11603040]
Funding OrganizationNational Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
WOS Research AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS SubjectAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS IDWOS:000541233600001
PublisherSPRINGER
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/83005
Collection中国科学院国家天文台
Corresponding AuthorDu, Z. L.
AffiliationChinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Key Lab Solar Act, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Du, Z. L.. The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25[J]. ASTROPHYSICS AND SPACE SCIENCE,2020,365(6):5.
APA Du, Z. L..(2020).The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25.ASTROPHYSICS AND SPACE SCIENCE,365(6),5.
MLA Du, Z. L.."The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25".ASTROPHYSICS AND SPACE SCIENCE 365.6(2020):5.
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