KMS National Astronomical Observatories, CAS
| Predicting the Shape of Solar Cycle 25 Using a Similar-Cycle Method | |
| Du, Zhanle | |
| 2020-10-06 | |
| Source Publication | SOLAR PHYSICS
 |
| ISSN | 0038-0938 |
| Volume | 295Issue:10Pages:11 |
| Abstract | A similar-cycle method is applied in predicting the shape of Solar Cycle 25, through a more scientific definition to select similar cycles. Using the current solar minimum Rmin(25) as a reference, the six most similar cycles to Solar Cycle 25 are found to be Cycles 24, 15, 12, 14, 17, and 10 (in that order). The monthly values of sunspot-number series for the whole of Cycle 25 are predicted by weighted averaging the corresponding ones in the six similar cycles. As a result, Solar Cycle 25 is predicted to peak around October 2024 with an amplitude of about Rm=137.8 +/- 31.3 and to end around September 2030. As a by-product, there might be a secondary peak eight months earlier. The similar-cycle method considers only the solar cycles with similar parameters rather than all ones as for regression methods. It has an advantage that it does not depend so much on the accuracy of the observation. |
| Keyword | Solar activity sunspots solar cycle Prediction |
| Funding Organization | National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11207-020-01701-4 |
| WOS Keyword | SUNSPOT NUMBERS ; AMPLITUDE ; PRECURSOR ; MINIMUM ; MAXIMUM ; SOLAR-CYCLE-24 ; PHASES ; SIZE ; PEAK |
| Language | 英语 |
| Funding Project | National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11973058] ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11603040] |
| Funding Organization | National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) |
| WOS Research Area | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| WOS Subject | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| WOS ID | WOS:000578481900004 |
| Publisher | SPRINGER |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/81908 |
| Collection | 中国科学院国家天文台 |
| Corresponding Author | Du, Zhanle |
| Affiliation | Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Key Lab Solar Act, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Du, Zhanle. Predicting the Shape of Solar Cycle 25 Using a Similar-Cycle Method[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2020,295(10):11. |
| APA | Du, Zhanle.(2020).Predicting the Shape of Solar Cycle 25 Using a Similar-Cycle Method.SOLAR PHYSICS,295(10),11. |
| MLA | Du, Zhanle."Predicting the Shape of Solar Cycle 25 Using a Similar-Cycle Method".SOLAR PHYSICS 295.10(2020):11. |
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