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Predicting the Shape of Solar Cycle 25 Using a Similar-Cycle Method
Du, Zhanle
2020-10-06
Source PublicationSOLAR PHYSICS
ISSN0038-0938
Volume295Issue:10Pages:11
AbstractA similar-cycle method is applied in predicting the shape of Solar Cycle 25, through a more scientific definition to select similar cycles. Using the current solar minimum Rmin(25) as a reference, the six most similar cycles to Solar Cycle 25 are found to be Cycles 24, 15, 12, 14, 17, and 10 (in that order). The monthly values of sunspot-number series for the whole of Cycle 25 are predicted by weighted averaging the corresponding ones in the six similar cycles. As a result, Solar Cycle 25 is predicted to peak around October 2024 with an amplitude of about Rm=137.8 +/- 31.3 and to end around September 2030. As a by-product, there might be a secondary peak eight months earlier. The similar-cycle method considers only the solar cycles with similar parameters rather than all ones as for regression methods. It has an advantage that it does not depend so much on the accuracy of the observation.
KeywordSolar activity sunspots solar cycle Prediction
Funding OrganizationNational Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
DOI10.1007/s11207-020-01701-4
WOS KeywordSUNSPOT NUMBERS ; AMPLITUDE ; PRECURSOR ; MINIMUM ; MAXIMUM ; SOLAR-CYCLE-24 ; PHASES ; SIZE ; PEAK
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11973058] ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11603040]
Funding OrganizationNational Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
WOS Research AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS SubjectAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS IDWOS:000578481900004
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/81904
Collection中国科学院国家天文台
Corresponding AuthorDu, Zhanle
AffiliationChinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Key Lab Solar Act, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Du, Zhanle. Predicting the Shape of Solar Cycle 25 Using a Similar-Cycle Method[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2020,295(10):11.
APA Du, Zhanle.(2020).Predicting the Shape of Solar Cycle 25 Using a Similar-Cycle Method.SOLAR PHYSICS,295(10),11.
MLA Du, Zhanle."Predicting the Shape of Solar Cycle 25 Using a Similar-Cycle Method".SOLAR PHYSICS 295.10(2020):11.
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