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Forecasting the Daily 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux Using an Autoregressive Model
Du, Zhanle
2020-09-08
Source PublicationSOLAR PHYSICS
ISSN0038-0938
Volume295Issue:9Pages:23
AbstractAs an important proxy of the solar extreme ultraviolet radiation from the upper chromosphere and lower corona, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7) has a wide range of applications in models of the thermosphere and ionosphere. Forecasting F10.7 has already become a routine business in space weather services. In this study, we analyzed the predictive power of autoregressive (AR) models with orders p = 15 - 1005, a training sample length L = 22 years, and a running time window w = 50 days on the daily F10.7, during the last two solar cycles (Solar Cycles 23 and 24) at the forecast steps n = 1 - 81 days. The main conclusions are as follows. (i) The mean forecast error ((delta) over bar) at the nth day or over N days is minimum at an optimal order p(o), which tends to increase as n or N increases. (ii) (delta) over bar is positively related to both n and F10.7. The large error during the maximum period is the result of the large daily variation in F10.7, mainly due to the appearance and decay of active regions, especially the eruptions of solar flares. (iii) The solar cycle can be divided into six parts in the rising order of (delta) over bar: (a) closing part of the declining phase, (b) initial rising phase, (c) middle declining phase, (iv) closing rising phase, (v) middle rising phase, and (f) initial declining phase. (iv) The AR model at p(o) is not inferior to other techniques. (v) p(o) is uncorrelated to the autocorrelation coefficient, and (vi) d is minimum at a certain L.
KeywordRadio emission Autoregression model Solar cycle Flares Active regions Earth's atmosphere
Funding OrganizationNational Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
DOI10.1007/s11207-020-01689-x
WOS KeywordPREDICTION ; SUNSPOT ; INDEXES ; F10.7
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11473040] ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11973058]
Funding OrganizationNational Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
WOS Research AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS SubjectAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS IDWOS:000570921800002
PublisherSPRINGER
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/81430
Collection中国科学院国家天文台
Corresponding AuthorDu, Zhanle
AffiliationChinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Key Lab Solar Act, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Du, Zhanle. Forecasting the Daily 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux Using an Autoregressive Model[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2020,295(9):23.
APA Du, Zhanle.(2020).Forecasting the Daily 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux Using an Autoregressive Model.SOLAR PHYSICS,295(9),23.
MLA Du, Zhanle."Forecasting the Daily 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux Using an Autoregressive Model".SOLAR PHYSICS 295.9(2020):23.
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