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Short-Term Solar Flare Prediction Using a Sequential Supervised Learning Method
Yu, Daren1; Huang, Xin1; Wang, Huaning2; Cui, Yanmei3
2009-03-01
Source PublicationSOLAR PHYSICS
Volume255Issue:1Pages:91-105
AbstractSolar flares are powered by the energy stored in magnetic fields, so evolutionary information of the magnetic field is important for short-term prediction of solar flares. However, the existing solar flare prediction models only use the current information of the active region. A sequential supervised learning method is introduced to add the evolutionary information of the active region into a prediction model. The maximum horizontal gradient, the length of the neutral line, and the number of singular points extracted from SOHO/MDI longitudinal magnetograms are used in the model to describe the nonpotentiality and complexity of the photospheric magnetic field. The evolutionary characteristics of the predictors are analyzed by using autocorrelation functions and mutual information functions. The analysis results indicate that a flare is influenced by the 3-day photospheric magnetic field information before flare eruption. A sliding-window method is used to add evolutionary information of the predictors into machine learning algorithms, then C4.5 decision tree and learning vector quantization are employed to predict the flare level within 48 hours. Experimental results indicate that the performance of the short-term solar flare prediction model within the sequential supervised learning framework is significantly improved.
KeywordFlare Prediction Photospheric Magnetic Field Sequential Supervised Learning Method
DOI10.1007/s11207-009-9318-9
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000263649900005
Citation statistics
Cited Times:45[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/8127
Collection太阳物理研究部
Affiliation1.Harbin Inst Technol, Harbin 150006, Heilongjiang Pr, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Space Sci & Appl Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yu, Daren,Huang, Xin,Wang, Huaning,et al. Short-Term Solar Flare Prediction Using a Sequential Supervised Learning Method[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2009,255(1):91-105.
APA Yu, Daren,Huang, Xin,Wang, Huaning,&Cui, Yanmei.(2009).Short-Term Solar Flare Prediction Using a Sequential Supervised Learning Method.SOLAR PHYSICS,255(1),91-105.
MLA Yu, Daren,et al."Short-Term Solar Flare Prediction Using a Sequential Supervised Learning Method".SOLAR PHYSICS 255.1(2009):91-105.
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