KMS National Astronomical Observatories, CAS
Predicting the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 Using the Value 39 Months Before the Solar Minimum | |
Du, Zhanle | |
2020-10-29 | |
Source Publication | SOLAR PHYSICS
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ISSN | 0038-0938 |
Volume | 295Issue:10Pages:10 |
Abstract | Yoshida and Yamagishi (Ann. Geophys. 28, 417, 2010) found that the rate of decrease in the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number [R-I] over the final three years of a solar cycle or R-I itself at three years before the solar minimum [R-min] can be used as a precursor for the ensuing maximum amplitude [R-m] if the time of R-min can be predicted in advance. The R-I series of the new version is employed to carefully analyze the decrease rate [beta] at different months [m] before R-min and over different time intervals [Delta m] in this study. It is found that R-m(n) of Solar Cycle n is best correlated (r = 0.831) with the preceding beta(n - 1, m, Delta m) over the final Delta m = m = 39 months. In addition, R-m is found to be best correlated (r = 0.834) with the R-I value 39 months before the preceding minimum. For the even- (odd-)numbered cycles, R-m is best correlated, r = 0.956 (0.747), with the rate of decrease over Delta m = 38(43) months interval from m = 39(47) months before the solar minimum, and R-m is best correlated, r = 0.964(0.739), with the R-I-value 39 (46) months before the solar minimum. Based on this method and the inferred end time of Solar Cycle 24, the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is predicted to be R-m = 130.0 +/- 31.9, occurring around October 2024 +/- 13 (months). |
Keyword | Solar activity sunspots solar cycle Prediction |
Funding Organization | National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) |
DOI | 10.1007/s11207-020-01720-1 |
WOS Keyword | SUNSPOT NUMBER ; MAXIMUM ; SIZE ; SOLAR-CYCLE-24 ; GROWTH ; SERIES ; SHAPE |
Language | 英语 |
Funding Project | National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11603040] ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11973058] |
Funding Organization | National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) |
WOS Research Area | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
WOS Subject | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
WOS ID | WOS:000589557800003 |
Publisher | SPRINGER |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | 期刊论文 |
Identifier | http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/80978 |
Collection | 中国科学院国家天文台 |
Corresponding Author | Du, Zhanle |
Affiliation | Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Solar Act, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Du, Zhanle. Predicting the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 Using the Value 39 Months Before the Solar Minimum[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2020,295(10):10. |
APA | Du, Zhanle.(2020).Predicting the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 Using the Value 39 Months Before the Solar Minimum.SOLAR PHYSICS,295(10),10. |
MLA | Du, Zhanle."Predicting the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 Using the Value 39 Months Before the Solar Minimum".SOLAR PHYSICS 295.10(2020):10. |
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