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Predicting the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 Using the Value 39 Months Before the Solar Minimum
Du, Zhanle
2020-10-29
Source PublicationSOLAR PHYSICS
ISSN0038-0938
Volume295Issue:10Pages:10
AbstractYoshida and Yamagishi (Ann. Geophys. 28, 417, 2010) found that the rate of decrease in the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number [R-I] over the final three years of a solar cycle or R-I itself at three years before the solar minimum [R-min] can be used as a precursor for the ensuing maximum amplitude [R-m] if the time of R-min can be predicted in advance. The R-I series of the new version is employed to carefully analyze the decrease rate [beta] at different months [m] before R-min and over different time intervals [Delta m] in this study. It is found that R-m(n) of Solar Cycle n is best correlated (r = 0.831) with the preceding beta(n - 1, m, Delta m) over the final Delta m = m = 39 months. In addition, R-m is found to be best correlated (r = 0.834) with the R-I value 39 months before the preceding minimum. For the even- (odd-)numbered cycles, R-m is best correlated, r = 0.956 (0.747), with the rate of decrease over Delta m = 38(43) months interval from m = 39(47) months before the solar minimum, and R-m is best correlated, r = 0.964(0.739), with the R-I-value 39 (46) months before the solar minimum. Based on this method and the inferred end time of Solar Cycle 24, the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is predicted to be R-m = 130.0 +/- 31.9, occurring around October 2024 +/- 13 (months).
KeywordSolar activity sunspots solar cycle Prediction
Funding OrganizationNational Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
DOI10.1007/s11207-020-01720-1
WOS KeywordSUNSPOT NUMBER ; MAXIMUM ; SIZE ; SOLAR-CYCLE-24 ; GROWTH ; SERIES ; SHAPE
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11603040] ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[11973058]
Funding OrganizationNational Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; National Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
WOS Research AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS SubjectAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS IDWOS:000589557800003
PublisherSPRINGER
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/80977
Collection中国科学院国家天文台
Corresponding AuthorDu, Zhanle
AffiliationChinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Solar Act, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Du, Zhanle. Predicting the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 Using the Value 39 Months Before the Solar Minimum[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2020,295(10):10.
APA Du, Zhanle.(2020).Predicting the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 Using the Value 39 Months Before the Solar Minimum.SOLAR PHYSICS,295(10),10.
MLA Du, Zhanle."Predicting the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 Using the Value 39 Months Before the Solar Minimum".SOLAR PHYSICS 295.10(2020):10.
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