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The prediction method of similar cycles
Du, Zhan-Le; Wang, Hua-Ning
AbstractThe concept of degree of similarity (eta), is proposed to quantitatively describe the similarity of a parameter (e.g. the maximum amplitude R(max)) of a solar cycle relative to a referenced one, and the prediction method of similar cycles is further developed. For two parameters, the solar minimum (R(min)) and rising rate (beta(a)) which can be directly measured a few months after the minimum, a synthesis degree of similarity (eta(s)) is defined as the weighted-average of the eta values around R(min) and beta(a), with the weights given by the coefficients of determination of R(max) with R(min), and beta(a), respectively. The monthly values of the whole referenced cycle can be predicted by averaging the corresponding values in the most similar cycles with the weights given by the eta(s) values. As an application, Cycle 24 is predicted to peak around January 2013 +/- 8 (month) with a size of about R(max) = 84 +/- 17 and to end around September 2019.
KeywordSun: Activity Sun: General Sunspots
Indexed BySCI
WOS IDWOS:000298341000009
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Document Type期刊论文
AffiliationChinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Key Lab Solar Act, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Du, Zhan-Le,Wang, Hua-Ning. The prediction method of similar cycles[J]. RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,2011,11(12):1482-1492.
APA Du, Zhan-Le,&Wang, Hua-Ning.(2011).The prediction method of similar cycles.RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,11(12),1482-1492.
MLA Du, Zhan-Le,et al."The prediction method of similar cycles".RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS 11.12(2011):1482-1492.
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