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The Relationship between Prediction Accuracy and Correlation Coefficient
Du, Zhanle
2011-05-01
Source PublicationSOLAR PHYSICS
Volume270Issue:1Pages:407-416
AbstractThe correlation coefficient (r) between the maximum amplitude (R (m)) of a sunspot cycle and the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aa (min)), in terms of geomagnetic cycle, can be fitted by a sinusoidal function with a four-cycle periodicity superimposed on a declining trend. The prediction index (chi) of the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty based on a geomagnetic precursor method can be fitted by a sinusoidal function with a four-and-half-cycle periodicity. A revised prediction relationship is found between the two quantities: chi < 1.2 if r varies in a rising trend, and chi > 1.2 if r varies in a declining trend. The prediction accuracy of R (m) depends on the long-term variation in the correlation. These results indicate that the prediction for the next cycle inferred from this method, R (m)(24)=87 +/- 23 regarding the 75% level of confidence (1.2-sigma), is likely to fail. When using another predictor of sunspot area instead of the geomagnetic index, similar results can be also obtained. Dynamo models will have better predictive powers when having considered the long-term periodicities.
KeywordSolar Activity Prediction Sunspots Geomagnetic Activity Solar Cycle Geomagnetic Indices
DOI10.1007/s11207-011-9720-y
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000290447400028
Citation statistics
Cited Times:12[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/8003
Collection太阳物理研究部
AffiliationChinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Solar Act, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Du, Zhanle. The Relationship between Prediction Accuracy and Correlation Coefficient[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2011,270(1):407-416.
APA Du, Zhanle.(2011).The Relationship between Prediction Accuracy and Correlation Coefficient.SOLAR PHYSICS,270(1),407-416.
MLA Du, Zhanle."The Relationship between Prediction Accuracy and Correlation Coefficient".SOLAR PHYSICS 270.1(2011):407-416.
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