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The Relationship between Prediction Accuracy and Correlation Coefficient
Du, Zhanle
2011-05-01
发表期刊SOLAR PHYSICS
卷号270期号:1页码:407-416
摘要The correlation coefficient (r) between the maximum amplitude (R (m)) of a sunspot cycle and the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aa (min)), in terms of geomagnetic cycle, can be fitted by a sinusoidal function with a four-cycle periodicity superimposed on a declining trend. The prediction index (chi) of the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty based on a geomagnetic precursor method can be fitted by a sinusoidal function with a four-and-half-cycle periodicity. A revised prediction relationship is found between the two quantities: chi < 1.2 if r varies in a rising trend, and chi > 1.2 if r varies in a declining trend. The prediction accuracy of R (m) depends on the long-term variation in the correlation. These results indicate that the prediction for the next cycle inferred from this method, R (m)(24)=87 +/- 23 regarding the 75% level of confidence (1.2-sigma), is likely to fail. When using another predictor of sunspot area instead of the geomagnetic index, similar results can be also obtained. Dynamo models will have better predictive powers when having considered the long-term periodicities.
关键词Solar Activity Prediction Sunspots Geomagnetic Activity Solar Cycle Geomagnetic Indices
DOI10.1007/s11207-011-9720-y
收录类别SCI
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000290447400028
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被引频次:12[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/8003
专题太阳物理研究部
作者单位Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Solar Act, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
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Du, Zhanle. The Relationship between Prediction Accuracy and Correlation Coefficient[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2011,270(1):407-416.
APA Du, Zhanle.(2011).The Relationship between Prediction Accuracy and Correlation Coefficient.SOLAR PHYSICS,270(1),407-416.
MLA Du, Zhanle."The Relationship between Prediction Accuracy and Correlation Coefficient".SOLAR PHYSICS 270.1(2011):407-416.
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