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The Shape of Solar Cycle Described by a Modified Gaussian Function
Du, Zhanle
Source PublicationSOLAR PHYSICS
AbstractThe shape of each sunspot cycle is found to be well described by a modified Gaussian function with four parameters: peak size A, peak timing t(m), width B, and asymmetry alpha. The four-parameter function can be further reduced to a two-parameter function by assuming that B and alpha are quadratic functions of t(m), computed from the starting time (T-0). It is found that the shape can be better fitted by the four-parameter function, while the remaining behavior of the cycle can be better predicted by the two-parameter function when using the data from a few (about two) months after the starting time defined by the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers. As a new solar cycle is ongoing, its remaining behavior can be constructed by the above four- or two-parameter function. A running test shows that the maximum amplitude of the cycle can be predicted to within 15% at about 25 months into the cycle based on the two-parameter function. A preliminary modeling to the first 24 months of data available for the current cycle indicates that the peak of cycle 24 may probably occur around June 2013 +/- 7 months with a size of 72 +/- 11. The above results are compared to those by quasi-Planck functions.
KeywordModels Solar Cycle Sunspots
Indexed BySCI
WOS IDWOS:000297125700015
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
AffiliationChinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Solar Activ, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Du, Zhanle. The Shape of Solar Cycle Described by a Modified Gaussian Function[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2011,273(1):231-253.
APA Du, Zhanle.(2011).The Shape of Solar Cycle Described by a Modified Gaussian Function.SOLAR PHYSICS,273(1),231-253.
MLA Du, Zhanle."The Shape of Solar Cycle Described by a Modified Gaussian Function".SOLAR PHYSICS 273.1(2011):231-253.
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