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Is a higher correlation necessary for a more accurate prediction?
Du ZhanLe; Wang HuaNing
AbstractA higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction, so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity. Instead of using geomagnetic activity during the descending phase of the solar cycle, the minimum annual aa index (aa(min)) is used as an indicator for the ensuing maximum amplitude (R(m)) of the sunspot cycle. A four-cycle periodicity is roughly shown in the correlation between Rm and aamin. The widely accepted Ohl's precursor prediction method often fails due to the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty. An accurate prediction depends on the positive variation of the correlation rather than a higher correlation. Previous experiences by using this method indicate that a prediction for the next cycle, R(m)(24) = 80 +/- 17, is likely to fail, implying that the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24 may be either smaller than 63 or greater than 97.
KeywordSolar Activity Sun Spots Solar Cycles
Indexed BySCI
WOS IDWOS:000287765900026
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Cited Times:7[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
AffiliationChinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Solar Act, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
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GB/T 7714
Du ZhanLe,Wang HuaNing. Is a higher correlation necessary for a more accurate prediction?[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY,2011,54(1):172-175.
APA Du ZhanLe,&Wang HuaNing.(2011).Is a higher correlation necessary for a more accurate prediction?.SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY,54(1),172-175.
MLA Du ZhanLe,et al."Is a higher correlation necessary for a more accurate prediction?".SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY 54.1(2011):172-175.
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