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A Dynamo-Based Prediction of Solar Cycle 25
Guo, Wei1,2; Jiang, Jie1,2; Wang, Jing-Xiu3,4
2021-09-01
Source PublicationSOLAR PHYSICS
ISSN0038-0938
Volume296Issue:9Pages:13
AbstractThe solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Solar Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of Sun's activity follow the solar cycle. Hence there are practical needs to know the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25. Dynamo-based solar cycle predictions not only provide forecasts, but also offer an effective way to evaluate our understanding of the solar cycle. In this article we apply the method of the first successful dynamo-based prediction developed for Solar Cycle 24 to predict Solar Cycle 25, so that we can verify whether the previous success is repeatable. The prediction shows that Solar Cycle 25 would be about 10% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with an amplitude of 126 (international sunspot number Version 2.0). The result suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will not be the beginning of a Maunder-like grand solar minimum as suggested by some publications. The solar behavior in about four to five years will confirm whether the prediction method captures the key mechanism for solar cycle variability, which is the polar field around the cycle minimum in our model.
KeywordMagnetic fields models Solar cycle models Solar cycle observations
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; International Space Science Institute Teams ; International Space Science Institute Teams ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; International Space Science Institute Teams ; International Space Science Institute Teams ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; International Space Science Institute Teams ; International Space Science Institute Teams ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; International Space Science Institute Teams ; International Space Science Institute Teams
DOI10.1007/s11207-021-01878-2
WOS KeywordMODEL
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[11873023] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11522325] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS[ZDBS-LY-SLH013] ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS[XDB41000000] ; International Space Science Institute Teams[474] ; International Space Science Institute Teams[475]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; International Space Science Institute Teams ; International Space Science Institute Teams ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; International Space Science Institute Teams ; International Space Science Institute Teams ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; International Space Science Institute Teams ; International Space Science Institute Teams ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of CAS ; International Space Science Institute Teams ; International Space Science Institute Teams
WOS Research AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS SubjectAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS IDWOS:000694846100001
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/75561
Collection中国科学院国家天文台
Corresponding AuthorJiang, Jie
Affiliation1.Beihang Univ, Sch Space & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Key Lab Space Environm Monitoring & Informat Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Astron & Space Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Key Lab Solar Act, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Guo, Wei,Jiang, Jie,Wang, Jing-Xiu. A Dynamo-Based Prediction of Solar Cycle 25[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2021,296(9):13.
APA Guo, Wei,Jiang, Jie,&Wang, Jing-Xiu.(2021).A Dynamo-Based Prediction of Solar Cycle 25.SOLAR PHYSICS,296(9),13.
MLA Guo, Wei,et al."A Dynamo-Based Prediction of Solar Cycle 25".SOLAR PHYSICS 296.9(2021):13.
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