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On the possibility of predicting flare index and CME velocity using vector magnetograms
Chen, AnQin1; Wang, JingXiu2,3
2020-02-20
Source PublicationSCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY
ISSN1674-7348
Volume63Issue:6Pages:10
AbstractIn this paper, 106 active regions (ARs) in the visible solar hemisphere in solar cycle 24 whose maximum sunspot groups' areas were larger than 400 mu h were selected. The association of their flare index (Iflare), largest flare magnitude (M-flare), and fastest coronal mass ejection (CME) velocity (V-CME) with the vector magnetic field parameters were examined, and attempts were made to predict I-flare, M-flare, and V-CME using the vector magnetograms. I-flare and M-flare were found to have a good correlation with the total photospheric free magnetic energy density (E-free), the length of the magnetic neutral line with a steep horizontal magnetic gradient (L-NL), and the area with strong magnetic shear (A(psi)). I-flare and M-flare were also found to have a best correlation with E-free. However, V-CME displayed a moderate correlation with these three magnetic field parameters with a best correlation with A(psi). Thus, E-free and A(psi) appear to be the best parameters that can be used to predict I-flare (M-flare) and V-CME, respectively. Hence, the multiple linear regression fit is proposed more suitable to predict I-flare and M-flare because of the stronger forecasts obtained than those by the linear fit with one magnetic field parameter for I-flare and M-flare. However, the V-CME forecasts are better obtained through the linear fit with A(psi). The majority of the ARs without any CMEs never produced any flare larger than X1.0 while having a relatively lower E-free, shorter L-NL, and smaller A(psi). This suggests that the larger the largest flare in an AR is, the faster the fastest CME produced by the AR will be.
Keywordsunspots magnetic field flare coronal mass ejection
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences
DOI10.1007/s11433-019-1489-0
WOS KeywordMAGNETIC-FIELD PROPERTIES ; QUIET ACTIVE REGIONS ; CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ; SOLAR-FLARES ; EVOLUTION ; FLUX ; SHEAR ; RECONNECTION ; PRODUCTIVITY ; EMERGENCE
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41327802] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11573038] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11873059] ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA15350203] ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA15052200] ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZDBS-LYSLH013]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Strategic Priority Program on Space Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Basic Frontier Scientific Research Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences
WOS Research AreaPhysics
WOS SubjectPhysics, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000526409700001
PublisherSCIENCE PRESS
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/56165
Collection中国科学院国家天文台
Corresponding AuthorChen, AnQin
Affiliation1.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Ctr Space Weather, Key Lab Space Weather, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Solar Act, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Chen, AnQin,Wang, JingXiu. On the possibility of predicting flare index and CME velocity using vector magnetograms[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY,2020,63(6):10.
APA Chen, AnQin,&Wang, JingXiu.(2020).On the possibility of predicting flare index and CME velocity using vector magnetograms.SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY,63(6),10.
MLA Chen, AnQin,et al."On the possibility of predicting flare index and CME velocity using vector magnetograms".SCIENCE CHINA-PHYSICS MECHANICS & ASTRONOMY 63.6(2020):10.
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