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The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24
Gong Jancun1; Le Guiming1; Sun Jinglan2; Wang Jialong2; Liu Siqing1
2002
Source PublicationChinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics
ISSN1009-9271
Volume2Issue:6Pages:557
AbstractWe present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar,cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.
Language英语
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/52253
Collection中国科学院国家天文台
Affiliation1.中国科学院
2.中国科学院国家天文台
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Gong Jancun,Le Guiming,Sun Jinglan,et al. The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24[J]. Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics,2002,2(6):557.
APA Gong Jancun,Le Guiming,Sun Jinglan,Wang Jialong,&Liu Siqing.(2002).The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24.Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics,2(6),557.
MLA Gong Jancun,et al."The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24".Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics 2.6(2002):557.
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