Du Zhanle; Wang Huaning
Source Publicationsciencechinaphysicsmechanicsastronomy
AbstractA higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity during the descending phase of the solar cycle,the minimum annual aa index (aa min) is used as an indicator for the ensuing maximum amplitude (R m) of the sunspot cycle.A four-cycle periodicity is roughly shown in the correlation between R m and aa min.The widely accepted Ohl's precursor prediction method often fails due to the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty.An accurate prediction depends on the positive variation of the correlation rather than a higher correlation.Previous experiences by using this method indicate that a prediction for the next cycle,R m (24)=80 ± 17,is likely to fail,implying that the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24 may be either smaller than 63 or greater than 97.
Document Type期刊论文
First Author AffilicationNational Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Du Zhanle,Wang Huaning. isahighercorrelationnecessaryforamoreaccurateprediction[J]. sciencechinaphysicsmechanicsastronomy,2011,054(001):172.
APA Du Zhanle,&Wang Huaning.(2011).isahighercorrelationnecessaryforamoreaccurateprediction.sciencechinaphysicsmechanicsastronomy,054(001),172.
MLA Du Zhanle,et al."isahighercorrelationnecessaryforamoreaccurateprediction".sciencechinaphysicsmechanicsastronomy 054.001(2011):172.
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Related Services
Recommend this item
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Du Zhanle]'s Articles
[Wang Huaning]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Du Zhanle]'s Articles
[Wang Huaning]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Du Zhanle]'s Articles
[Wang Huaning]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.