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isahighercorrelationnecessaryforamoreaccurateprediction
Du Zhanle; Wang Huaning
2011
Source Publicationsciencechinaphysicsmechanicsastronomy
ISSN1674-7348
Volume054Issue:001Pages:172
AbstractA higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity during the descending phase of the solar cycle,the minimum annual aa index (aa min) is used as an indicator for the ensuing maximum amplitude (R m) of the sunspot cycle.A four-cycle periodicity is roughly shown in the correlation between R m and aa min.The widely accepted Ohl's precursor prediction method often fails due to the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty.An accurate prediction depends on the positive variation of the correlation rather than a higher correlation.Previous experiences by using this method indicate that a prediction for the next cycle,R m (24)=80 ± 17,is likely to fail,implying that the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24 may be either smaller than 63 or greater than 97.
Language英语
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/40500
Collection中国科学院国家天文台
Affiliation中国科学院国家天文台
First Author AffilicationNational Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Du Zhanle,Wang Huaning. isahighercorrelationnecessaryforamoreaccurateprediction[J]. sciencechinaphysicsmechanicsastronomy,2011,054(001):172.
APA Du Zhanle,&Wang Huaning.(2011).isahighercorrelationnecessaryforamoreaccurateprediction.sciencechinaphysicsmechanicsastronomy,054(001),172.
MLA Du Zhanle,et al."isahighercorrelationnecessaryforamoreaccurateprediction".sciencechinaphysicsmechanicsastronomy 054.001(2011):172.
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