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An improved prediction of sunspot maximum by Vondrak smoothing method
Yin, Z. Q.; Han, Y. B.
2018
Source PublicationASTRONOMISCHE NACHRICHTEN
ISSN0004-6337
Volume339Issue:1Pages:30-36
AbstractStudies of solar activity characteristics and prediction are gaining more attention. Using the 13-month smoothed value of monthly sunspot numbers, we studied correlations between the rising rate of sunspot numbers of the first 24 months of the solar cycle (SC) and the coming cycle maximum; published forecasting results demonstrated that the maximum value was 139.2 +/- 18.8 for the 23rd SC, while the observed value was 120.8 and the error was about 15.2%. The present paper introduces our improved forecasting methods. The Vondrak smoothing method is used to deal with the monthly sunspot numbers. The relationships between the rise rate of earlier months of sunspot numbers of Vondrak smoothed sequence and the coming maximum value in each SC are studied. The results show that the rising rate of sunspot numbers are highly related with the coming maximum values, and simulated prediction of maximum for 22 approximate to 24 cycles show that, using the 24-month rise rate of three SCs, the maximum forecasting error is about 8.6%. The differences between prediction and observation of ascending time are within +/- 10%. The new prediction method can shift at least 6 months ahead in comparison with the common method using the 13-month smoothed value, that is, the amplitude and epoch of solar maximum in the SC can be predicted about 2 years after the solar minimum.
Keywordmethods: Vondrak Sun: Sunspots
Funding OrganizationNational Basic Research Program of China (973) ; National Basic Research Program of China (973) ; National Basic Research Program of China (973) ; National Basic Research Program of China (973) ; National Basic Research Program of China (973) ; National Basic Research Program of China (973) ; National Basic Research Program of China (973) ; National Basic Research Program of China (973)
DOI10.1002/asna.201713373
WOS KeywordSOLAR-CYCLE 24 ; WAVELET ANALYSIS ; AMPLITUDE ; NUMBERS ; TIME ; LENGTH
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Basic Research Program of China (973)[2012CB957801]
Funding OrganizationNational Basic Research Program of China (973) ; National Basic Research Program of China (973) ; National Basic Research Program of China (973) ; National Basic Research Program of China (973) ; National Basic Research Program of China (973) ; National Basic Research Program of China (973) ; National Basic Research Program of China (973) ; National Basic Research Program of China (973)
WOS Research AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS SubjectAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS IDWOS:000424489900003
PublisherWILEY-V C H VERLAG GMBH
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/37199
Collection中国科学院国家天文台
Corresponding AuthorYin, Z. Q.
AffiliationChinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yin, Z. Q.,Han, Y. B.. An improved prediction of sunspot maximum by Vondrak smoothing method[J]. ASTRONOMISCHE NACHRICHTEN,2018,339(1):30-36.
APA Yin, Z. Q.,&Han, Y. B..(2018).An improved prediction of sunspot maximum by Vondrak smoothing method.ASTRONOMISCHE NACHRICHTEN,339(1),30-36.
MLA Yin, Z. Q.,et al."An improved prediction of sunspot maximum by Vondrak smoothing method".ASTRONOMISCHE NACHRICHTEN 339.1(2018):30-36.
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