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A Decline Phase Modeling for the Prediction of Solar Cycle 25
Han, Y. B.; Yin, Z. Q.
2019-08-01
Source PublicationSOLAR PHYSICS
ISSN0038-0938
Volume294Issue:8Pages:14
AbstractWe use the Vondrak smoothing method and the V2.0 version of the monthly mean sunspot number (SSN) to produce a series of smoothed SSN (denoted SSN-VS), which closely mimics the 13-month running mean SSN. SSN-VS is then used to determine the characteristics of solar cycles. In particular, we find that our simulations for the past seven solar cycles yield predictions with relatively small errors. Applying the technique to the descending portion (i.e. the 20 months following SSN-VS = 70) of the present Solar Cycle 24, we make predictions for the next Solar Cycle 25. In particular, we find, assuming that Solar Cycle 25 is not a statistical outlier, that: 1) the sunspot minimum occurrence is expected around 2019.188 +/- 0.98) the sunspot maximum occurrence is expected around 2023.918 +/- 1.64years, and 3) a sunspot maximum value of about 228.8 +/- 40.5units of sunspot number is expected.
KeywordSolar activity Prediction Descending rate of SSN Solar cycle
Funding OrganizationNational Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China
DOI10.1007/s11207-019-1494-7
WOS KeywordSUNSPOT NUMBERS ; MAXIMUM ; AMPLITUDE ; GROWTH ; SIZE
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Basic Research Program of China[2012CB957801]
Funding OrganizationNational Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China
WOS Research AreaAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS SubjectAstronomy & Astrophysics
WOS IDWOS:000482409300002
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.bao.ac.cn/handle/114a11/27693
Collection中国科学院国家天文台
Corresponding AuthorHan, Y. B.
AffiliationChinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ China, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Han, Y. B.,Yin, Z. Q.. A Decline Phase Modeling for the Prediction of Solar Cycle 25[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2019,294(8):14.
APA Han, Y. B.,&Yin, Z. Q..(2019).A Decline Phase Modeling for the Prediction of Solar Cycle 25.SOLAR PHYSICS,294(8),14.
MLA Han, Y. B.,et al."A Decline Phase Modeling for the Prediction of Solar Cycle 25".SOLAR PHYSICS 294.8(2019):14.
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